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HCM Metropolis (VNA) – HSBC has lowered its forecast on Vietnam’s inflation fee in 2022 to three.5 % from its earlier prediction of three.7 % because of the secure home meals costs, which is predicted to assist curb the nation’s headline inflation, in line with a report launched by the financial institution on June 14.
The financial institution defined that the inflation threat in ASEAN international locations has elevated for the reason that starting of 2022, resulting in a excessive rise in each core and headline inflation charges in comparison with the interval earlier than COVID-19 broke out.
Nevertheless, the impacts are totally different on every nation, and inflation strain in Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines has change into heavier, whereas in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, inflation has been below good management, in line with the report.
However headline inflation is more likely to enhance sharply within the second group quickly, particularly within the context of rising power costs, it predicted, including that though the world oil worth has “cooled down” in comparison with the height in March, it’s nonetheless at a excessive stage, whereas the value of pure gasoline continues to extend progressively.
In Vietnam, power worth inflation has additionally continued for lengthy. Transport costs hit a report excessive, surpassing meals inflation to change into the principle driver of Vietnam’s headline inflation, it mentioned. Regardless of rising power costs, meals inflation has remained reasonable, serving to management the general enhance in headline inflation to date, it added.
Within the report, HSBC additionally elevated its inflation forecast for Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines.
After contemplating each inflation and development, HSBC additionally revised its forecast for Vietnam’s working rates of interest in 2022.
Whereas the present inflation fee stays under the 4 % goal, the financial institution expects persistent excessive power costs will proceed to push general costs up. It’s possible that inflation will generally surpass the State Financial institution of Vietnam’s ceiling fee of 4 % within the second half of 2022 however solely briefly, mentioned the report. That state of affairs will possible trigger the financial institution to regulate rates of interest by 50 foundation factors within the third quarter of 2022 earlier than elevating the charges 3 times, 25 foundation factors every time in 2023, the report underlined./.
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