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HANOI, VIETNAM — Vietnam is a serious producer, shopper and exporter of rice, however wheat flour is enjoying a rising half within the diets of its residents.
In its March 17 Grain Market Report, the Worldwide Grains Council (IGC) put Vietnam’s complete corn manufacturing in 2021-22 at 4.4 million tonnes, unchanged from the forecast it produced a month earlier and down on the earlier yr’s output of 4.6 million.
The IGC forecasts Vietnam’s complete grains imports in 2021-22 at 16.4 million tonnes, unrevised from a month earlier than, and down from the 17.2 million imported in 2020-21. The import determine consists of 3.6 million tonnes of wheat, down from 3.9 million the earlier yr. Corn imports are put at 12.2 million tonnes, down from the prior yr’s 12.7 million.
The Council forecasts Vietnam’s 2021-22 rice output at 28.9 million tonnes, an upward revision from its February forecast of 28.3 million and in addition up on the earlier yr’s crop of 28.5 million.
Vietnam is also slated to import 1.8 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021-22, a determine unrevised from the earlier forecast and unchanged from 2020-21.
Vietnam is likely one of the world’s main exporters of rice, behind solely India (which is properly forward of all others) and Thailand, with forecast shipments overseas of 6.5 million tonnes forecast for 2022-23, a prediction that was revised up from 6.4 million tonnes a month earlier. Rice exports in 2021-22 are put at 6.5 million tonnes.
Rice shipments in 2022 began extra shortly than the earlier yr. Jan. 1 to Feb. 28 shipments are put at 975,000 tonnes, in contrast with 656,000 in the identical interval in 2021.
Based on a Background on Vietnam provided to World Grain by US Wheat Associates (USW), “Vietnam is a shortly rising imported wheat market with an exploding center class desirous to devour extra and better-quality wheat-based meals.”
“Bakers and end-product producers are aggressive in assembly new demand and the milling business is more and more savvy in supplying greater high quality flour,” USW mentioned.
Wheat from the USA “made vital inroads out there, capturing appreciable share of conventional merchandise that had lengthy been made out of Australian wheat flour and dominating segments the place US wheat courses have a transparent benefit, comparable to biscuits, truffles and loaf bread.”
In 2020-21, US shipments took 20% of the milling wheat market, regardless of a file harvest in Australia.
“Whole wheat imports by Vietnam have different broadly over the previous decade as feed millers shift extra freely between wheat and corn than their regional friends,” USW mentioned. “Milling wheat use is way extra steady, rising constantly by the previous decade, forecast at 2.25 million tonnes for 2021-22.”
USW places development in milling wheat demand at a mean 4.6% a yr, a charge equal to that of the Southeast Asian area as an entire.
“The annual milling wheat use enhance has significantly exceeded inhabitants development, indicating robust development in per capita consumption,” USW mentioned. “Based on USDA’s 2021 long-term projections, Vietnam’s wheat imports are anticipated to extend to five million tonnes by 2030-31.”
Flour and feed milling
USW mentioned the 29 flour mills in Vietnam have an annual capability of about 3.95 million tonnes of wheat, placing the business’s precise capability utilization at round 53%.
“New investments, primarily by overseas firms, are making it tough for much less environment friendly mills to compete,” USW mentioned. “The bigger mills are rising capability, with at the very least 5 latest expansions including 1 million tonnes in milling capability.”
US Wheat additionally defined that after talks final yr, which it described as “productive,” the Vietnamese authorities eradicated a 3% import tariff on US wheat on Dec. 30, 2021. The primary cargo of US wheat bought with no tariff, greater than 68,350 tonnes of soppy white and arduous pink spring wheat grown within the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, arrived on the port in Ho Chi Minh Metropolis on Feb. 6.
An annual attaché report on the grain and feed sector, printed April 1, 2021, mentioned that the nation’s home pigmeat business had not but recovered from the consequences of the 2019 African swine fever outbreak on manufacturing, regardless of encouragement from the federal government for producers who can meet biosecurity necessities to extend output.
“Poultry and bovine manufacturing additionally expanded in 2020, with noticeable new large-scale investments within the poultry sector,” the attaché mentioned. “The Vietnam feed business continues to rely closely on imported components with roughly 70% of feed components being imported. Though most damaged rice is provided by native manufacturing, Vietnam imported some damaged rice from India to deal with excessive costs in CY2020.
“Corn manufacturing continued to development downward, and cassava feed inventory has confronted competitors from exports and native industrial manufacturing.”
It additionally famous that “in keeping with specialists and farmers, fodder corn is simpler to develop than grain corn, requires much less husbandry efforts, and may be rotated with rice throughout the winter season within the north and northern central areas.”
Elevated soybean demand
In an annual report on oilseeds, dated April 13, 2021, the USDA attaché mentioned “soybean meal demand for feed use is forecast to extend in MY2021-22 because the swine herd repopulates from the impacts of African swine fever, together with a forecasted enhance in poultry manufacturing and bovine herd growth.”
“Elevated home soybean crush is pushed by rising feed and oil consumption demand,” the report added. “Soybeans for meals consumption are additionally forecast to extend as a result of anticipated restoration from COVID-19.”
Nonetheless, the attaché forecast that manufacturing would fall to 55,300 tonnes in 2020-21, after which to 47,500 tonnes in 2021-22.
“Low common yield of 1.58 tonnes per hectare and fragmented manufacturing makes native soybean manufacturing uncompetitive with the cheaper price of imported soybeans for the feed and meals processing business,” the attaché mentioned. “The decline in soybean planted space in 2019-20 is part of an general development of Vietnamese farmers switching to extra worthwhile crops comparable to varied vegetables and fruit which can be grown for each export and home consumption.
“Vietnam has two industrial soybean crushing services. The demand for soybean crush is pushed each by the necessity for meal for animal feed and a continued regular annual soy oil development charge.”
The report additionally forecast development in soybeans for meals use in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
“That is as a result of anticipated reopening of eating places, colleges, and industrial canteens,” the attaché mentioned. “US soybeans have a powerful benefit in food-use classes in comparison with different sources, as US soybeans are most popular for his or her taste and colour.”
Vietnam has a number of giant soy milk producers, together with Vinasoy, VinaMilk, and NutiFood, the report mentioned.
“Based on one soy milk business supply, the business continues to plan for a packed soy milk manufacturing development charge of 4% to five% in 2021 and 2022, as a result of anticipated restoration from COVID-19,” the report mentioned.
Biotech advantages
In a report on using agricultural biotechnology in Vietnam, dated Oct. 18, 2021, the USDA attaché mentioned the nation “continues to learn from biotech corn as a sustainable instrument within the struggle towards fall military worm (FAW) and elevated the manufacturing space to greater than 100,000 hectares in 2020-21.”
“Rising home manufacturing additionally helps meet demand for native feed supplies,” the report mentioned. “Vietnam stays a serious importer of biotech crops and merchandise, together with soybeans, corn, distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), soybean meal, and cotton.”
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